Key Highlights
- Gold down: MCX gold futures (December) traded at ₹1,48,410 per 10 grams, down ₹487 or 0.33%.
- Silver weaker: Silver futures (December) traded at ₹2,25,338 per kg, down ₹2,104 or 0.93%, after touching ₹2,24,500.
- After a big fall: Spot gold was lower after dropping 4% in the previous session to a seven-week low.
- Key pressure: Elevated US yields and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz weighed on bullion.
- Key levels: Gold needs to hold ₹1,48,000; a move above ₹1,50,000 is needed to confirm a recovery.
Gold and silver prices traded lower on Tuesday, falling up to 1%, as elevated US yields and uncertainty over the US-Iran standoff weighed on sentiment. The weakness comes a day after spot gold fell 4% to a seven-week low.
Today's MCX Numbers
| Metal | Last traded | Change | Intraday low | Intraday high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Dec), per 10 g | ₹1,48,410 | −₹487 (−0.33%) | ₹1,48,150 | ₹1,49,034 |
| Silver (Dec), per kg | ₹2,25,338 | −₹2,104 (−0.93%) | ₹2,24,500 | ₹2,26,359 |
Why It Matters: Gold Isn't Acting Like a Safe Haven
Normally, geopolitical tension pushes gold prices up, as investors seek safety. This time, the opposite is happening, and the reason lies in the US bond market.
When US yields are high, investors can earn a solid return from bonds. That makes non-yielding assets such as gold and silver less attractive. At the same time, the Hormuz crisis is keeping energy prices elevated, which feeds concerns about inflation and keeps interest rates, and yields, high. The result is that the same crisis that might normally support gold is indirectly working against it.
The Hormuz Deadlock
The selling came amid heightened tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the waterway within seven days, and Iranian officials have reportedly expressed pessimism in private about reaching a deal before the US midterm elections in November.
This is not the first time diplomacy has stalled. In May, Trump rejected Iran's response to a US peace proposal as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE", and Iran's demands then included an end to the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, withdrawal of US naval vessels enforcing a blockade and the lifting of sanctions.
Key Levels for Gold
According to commodity experts:
- Resistance: ₹1,50,000–1,50,700, then ₹1,52,000–1,52,600
- Support: ₹1,48,000–1,47,300, then ₹1,46,000–1,45,300
The near-term bias remains cautious. A sustained move above ₹1,50,000 is needed to confirm a recovery, while a decisive break below ₹1,48,000 could trigger another decline.
Key Levels for Silver
Silver opened with a gap-down near ₹2,26,000 and stayed below the ₹2,27,000–2,28,000 zone, which has turned into resistance after Monday's steep fall.
- Resistance: ₹2,27,000–2,28,000, then ₹2,32,000–2,33,000
- Support: ₹2,24,000–2,23,000, then ₹2,20,000–2,19,000
The bias for silver remains cautious to negative. It needs to move above ₹2,28,000 to stabilise, while a break below ₹2,24,000 could open the way to ₹2,20,000.
What It Means for Festive Buyers
With Dhanteras and Diwali coming up in November, many Indian households watch gold prices closely. The recent fall may offer a lower entry point for jewellery buyers, but experts' cautious outlook suggests prices could remain volatile in the weeks ahead. Buyers may prefer to spread purchases rather than time a single low.
For now, gold is being driven more by US yields than by geopolitical fear. Until either yields ease or the Hormuz standoff sees a real breakthrough, precious metals are likely to stay under pressure, with ₹1,48,000 for gold and ₹2,24,000 for silver as the key levels to watch.
With inputs from IANS.