Key Highlights

  • Surprise rebound: India's 4G smartphone shipments are expected to grow 3% in 2026, after a 48% fall in 2025.
  • Bigger share: 4G phones will make up 13% of the market in 2026, up from 11% in 2025, and could reach 15% in 2027.
  • The cause: Rising component costs have widened the price gap between 4G and 5G phones.
  • More choice: Brands offering 4G phones in the ₹10,000–20,000 segment jumped from 2 in 2025 to 12 in 2026 so far.
  • Global squeeze: Memory now makes up nearly 60% of the bill of materials in phones under $400.

For the past few years, India's smartphone story has been about the rapid shift to 5G. Now, a part of the market is moving the other way. According to a new report from Counterpoint Research, India's 4G smartphone shipments are expected to grow 3% year-on-year in 2026, after a steep 48% decline in 2025.

The share of 4G phones in the overall market is set to rise to 13% in 2026 from 11% in 2025.

Why 4G Is Back

The reason is cost. Rising component prices have widened the price gap between 4G and 5G devices, making 5G models more expensive for price-sensitive buyers.

As a result, value-seeking consumers in the entry segment (below ₹10,000) and the budget segment (₹10,000–20,000) are increasingly choosing 4G phones.

Brands Are Following Demand

Smartphone makers have responded quickly. The number of brands offering 4G models in the ₹10,000–20,000 segment has jumped from just two in 2025 to 12 in 2026 so far.

"This growing portfolio is positioning 4G as a broader value proposition, giving consumers a balance of price, specifications and performance as rising costs push 5G smartphones into higher price bands," said Counterpoint Senior Analyst Prachir Singh.

Not a Short-Term Blip

Counterpoint believes the shift will last. "4G is becoming a broader market trend rather than a short-term response to higher smartphone prices, as component prices are unlikely to normalize soon," the report said.

Research Director Tarun Pathak forecast that 4G's share will rise further, from 13% in 2026 to 15% in 2027. "We expect this broader price-value positioning to support continued 4G demand, while encouraging OEMs to expand their portfolios with more capable 4G devices," he said.

Why It Matters: The AI Memory Crunch Hits Your Pocket

The "component costs" behind this shift are largely memory chips. Globally, the build-out of AI data centres has sharply increased demand for DRAM, a key component used in both AI servers and smartphones, and demand has been outstripping supply.

Budget phones are hit hardest. In the first quarter of 2026, memory alone accounted for nearly 60% of the bill of materials in smartphones priced below $400, rising to more than 64% for phones under $99. Brands such as Transsion, OPPO, vivo, Honor and Xiaomi have been forced to either raise prices or reduce specifications to protect their margins.

Counterpoint had earlier projected that the average selling price of smartphones would rise 6.9% year-on-year in 2026.

When memory costs rise, 5G phones, which typically need pricier chipsets, get squeezed further. A 4G phone with good specifications becomes the more practical choice for many buyers.

A Bigger Worry for Entry Phones

The pressure on cheap phones is expected to deepen. Another report earlier this month said global shipments of smartphones below $200 could fall by about 40% between 2025 and 2030, with the entry tier seeing the sharpest contraction as higher costs and minimum specifications make the cheapest devices less viable.

What It Means for Buyers

  • In the ₹10,000–20,000 range: You now have more 4G options from more brands, often with better specifications for the same price than a comparable 5G phone.
  • The trade-off: A 4G phone may offer better value today, but buyers who plan to keep a phone for many years may still want to weigh the benefits of 5G.
  • Compare carefully: With prices shifting, check RAM, storage and processor specifications rather than going by network label alone.

India's 5G transition is not reversing, but it has hit a price wall at the budget end. As long as memory costs stay high, 4G is set to remain a serious option for millions of price-conscious buyers.

With inputs from IANS.