Key Highlights

  • Modest start: Global sales of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max rose 3.1% year-on-year in the first three weeks after their September release, per Counterpoint Research.
  • China leads: China contributed 29% year-on-year growth, masking weaker numbers elsewhere.
  • US and Japan dip: Higher prices hurt demand in both markets; US buyers saw limited upgrades, and a weaker yen amplified price hikes in Japan.
  • Pro Max share slips: The Pro Max made up 56% of series sales, down from 57%, as India and Southeast Asia leaned towards the Pro.
  • Next test: The iPhone Duo, launching in Week 43, has pre-bookings currently exceeding supply.

New Delhi: Apple's iPhone 18 Pro series has opened its sales run in positive territory, but the headline number hides a sharply divided picture. According to a report by Counterpoint Research released on Tuesday, global sales of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max grew 3.1 per cent year-on-year during the three weeks following their September release, outperforming the iPhone 17 Pro series over the same period last year.

Counterpoint attributed the growth to improved early supply compared with last year's launch, along with higher prices for competing flagship phones from Chinese Android makers. That second factor appears to have worked strongly in Apple's favour in China, which delivered 29 per cent year-on-year growth.

China's surge, however, masked softer performance in other key markets. Sales declined year-on-year in the United States and Japan, where higher prices weighed on demand. In the US, consumers have not viewed the new models as offering significant improvements in features or design over their predecessors. In Japan, a weaker exchange rate amplified price increases, further dampening appetite.

The product mix also shifted slightly. The iPhone 18 Pro Max accounted for 56 per cent of total series sales during the launch period, compared with 57 per cent a year earlier. Higher pricing and stronger demand growth in emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia, where buyers favoured the Pro over the Pro Max, contributed to the change.

The India Signal and What Analysts Are Watching

For Indian readers, the mix data is telling. Buyers in price-sensitive emerging markets are still choosing premium iPhones, but are increasingly drawing the line at the top-end variant. That reflects a broader pattern where aspiration remains strong, but value calculations shape the final purchase.

Analysts are cautious about reading too much into the early numbers. "Whether China's outperformance reflects durable demand or front-loaded buying will become clearer in the coming weeks," said Sujeong Lim, associate director at Counterpoint Research. Lim added that a recovery in US and Japan volumes, along with the impact of the iPhone Duo launch scheduled for Week 43, would be key factors shaping near-term demand.

Research Director Tarun Pathak noted that demand had varied across regions and that the firm would keep tracking sales as launch-driven buying normalises. He pointed to longer smartphone replacement cycles, memory-related price increases and broader macroeconomic uncertainty as factors weighing on upgrades. Even so, Pathak said low single-digit volume growth would still benefit Apple through a richer mix of higher-end models and incremental upgrades to the Pro lineup.

Meanwhile, pre-bookings for the iPhone Duo remain strong, with demand currently exceeding supply, according to the report.

The takeaway is clear: Apple's flagship cycle is no longer powered by universal excitement, but by specific markets and pricing dynamics. With China providing the lift and the iPhone Duo waiting in the wings, the coming weeks will reveal whether this 3.1 per cent gain marks a steady recovery or a short-lived launch spike.