Key Highlights
- Traffic boom: Mobile network traffic is expected to grow about 17% a year between 2025 and 2030.
- Revenue lag: Operator revenues are projected to grow only 2.7% a year.
- Equipment market: India’s telecom equipment market may double from $25 billion (FY25) to $50 billion by FY32.
- Made in India: Handset production reached ₹6,270 billion in FY26; telecom equipment import substitution is about 60%.
- Next frontier: Semiconductors, software, radio systems, optics and intellectual property.
India’s mobile networks are set to carry far more data, but telecom operators may not earn much more from it. According to a KPMG in India report, mobile network traffic will grow at about 17% a year between 2025 and 2030, while operator revenues will rise only about 2.7% a year.
The report calls this a widening gap between demand growth and value capture.
Why It Matters: The Squeeze in Numbers
Over five years, those growth rates add up to very different outcomes:
| Metric (2025–2030) | Annual growth | Five-year change* |
|---|---|---|
| Mobile data traffic | ~17% | ~2.2 times |
| Operator revenue | ~2.7% | ~1.14 times |
Calculated from the report’s growth rates.
Put simply, if traffic more than doubles while revenue rises only about 14%, the money operators earn for each unit of data could fall by roughly half. That is a major reason operators keep looking to raise prices and push higher-value plans. This week, Airtel raised its postpaid prices, and such moves are likely to continue as operators try to close the gap.
For consumers, the takeaway is that cheap data may not stay as cheap as it has been.
A Manufacturing Opportunity
The report also sees a big opportunity in making telecom gear. India’s telecom equipment market is projected to nearly double from $25 billion in FY25 to $50 billion by FY32, growing almost twice as fast as the global market. That works out to roughly 10% growth a year.
India already has scale. Handset production reached ₹6,270 billion (about ₹6.27 lakh crore) in FY26, and import substitution in telecom equipment has reached about 60%.
Recent developments point the same way: Ericsson has produced over 15,000 antennas in India and begun exporting them, and a Telecom Manufacturing Zone is set to take shape in Gwalior.
The Next Step: High-Value Technology
KPMG says India’s next phase must move into higher-value areas such as semiconductors, software, radio systems, optical technologies and intellectual property.
“As the foundation of the digital economy evolves from connectivity to intelligence, India has a unique opportunity to emerge as a creator of globally relevant technologies, platforms and intellectual property,” said Akhilesh Tuteja, Partner and National Leader, TMT, KPMG in India.
The Bottom Line
India’s telecom story is entering a new phase: data use will keep exploding, but earning from it will get harder. That pressure is likely to shape both your mobile bill and India’s push to build more telecom technology at home.
With inputs from IANS.