Key Highlights
- The estimate: Navratri-to-Diwali trade may exceed ₹7 lakh crore, says CAIT.
- Growth: 15–18% over last year’s ₹6.05 lakh crore.
- Services boom: Services business estimated at ₹80,000 crore to ₹1 lakh crore.
- Top categories: Groceries and FMCG (12%), gold, silver and jewellery (10%), electronics (8%).
- Local push: CAIT credits rising demand for Indian brands, MSMEs and handicrafts.
India’s festive trade between Navratri and Diwali is expected to cross ₹7 lakh crore this year, according to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT). That would be an increase of 15–18% over last year’s estimated ₹6.05 lakh crore.
CAIT Secretary General and Chandni Chowk MP Praveen Khandelwal said the projection is based on feedback from trade bodies and markets across states, consumer demand, shopping trends, and rising activity in rural and semi-urban areas.
Last Year vs This Year
| Last year | This year (CAIT estimate) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total festive trade | ₹6.05 lakh crore | Over ₹7 lakh crore |
| Goods | ₹5.40 lakh crore | – |
| Services | ₹65,000 crore | ₹80,000 crore – ₹1 lakh crore |
What People Are Expected to Buy
| Category | Share of festive trade |
|---|---|
| Groceries and FMCG | 12% |
| Gold, silver and jewellery | 10% |
| Electronics and electrical goods | 8% |
| Consumer durables, readymade garments, gifts | 7% each |
| Home decor, furniture and furnishings | 5% each |
| Others (textiles, sweets, puja items, dry fruits, footwear, etc.) | Rest |
Services such as transport, logistics, e-commerce deliveries, hotels, restaurants, tourism, catering and event management are also expected to benefit, along with Ramlilas, Durga Puja, Garba and Dandiya events and fairs.
Why It Matters: Volume or Value?
The headline number looks impressive, but it needs context. This year, prices are higher across many categories: the IMF expects India’s inflation to rise to about 5% in 2026, oil is above $100 a barrel, and gold prices have been elevated. Part of the 15–18% growth, therefore, may reflect people paying more for similar purchases, not just buying more.
That said, the estimate still signals healthy demand, especially from rural and semi-urban markets, which CAIT highlighted. If that holds, it would be good news for small traders, MSMEs and local service providers, who depend heavily on the festive season for a large share of their annual business.
The Local Push
Khandelwal said growing demand for locally made products, handicrafts, Indian brands and MSME goods reflects the impact of “Vocal for Local,” “Made in India” and “Aatmanirbhar Bharat.” He urged consumers to buy Indian products this season to support traders, artisans, women entrepreneurs and startups.
The Bottom Line
CAIT expects a record festive season. Whether it is driven by more shopping or higher prices, the coming weeks until Diwali will be crucial for India’s traders.
With inputs from IANS.