Key Highlights:

  • Rainfall running short: Cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall from June 1 to September 4 stood at 629.7 mm, 13% below the long-period average and down from 791.8 mm recorded during the same period last year.
  • Uneven spread flagged as key risk: A Bank of Baroda report says the spatial distribution of rainfall in the monsoon's final phase will be crucial, with 16 states currently in the deficient zone even as 49% of the country received normal to excess rain.
  • Mixed picture for crops: While rice, oilseeds and coarse cereals acreage has declined, pulses have seen gains, with tur sowing up 1.6% and urad up 12% year-on-year.
  • Reservoirs running low: All-India reservoir storage stands at 70% of capacity, sharply lower than 86% recorded at the same time last year.
  • El Nino a looming factor: The IMD has flagged moderate El Nino conditions that are projected to strengthen through the remainder of the season, adding uncertainty to the final rainfall outcome.

As cumulative rainfall remains below normal and the monsoon enters its final phase, the spatial distribution of rainfall will be critical for final kharif acreage and could have implications for food inflation in the near term, a Bank of Baroda report said on Saturday.

Cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall from June 1 to September 4 stood at 629.7 millimetres — 13 per cent below the long-period average — reducing the kharif sowing area, the report said. This compares with 791.8 mm recorded over the same period last year. Overall, 49 per cent of the country received normal to excess rainfall, while 16 states remained in the deficient zone.

Regionally, the Southern Peninsula reported a deficit of 26 per cent, East and North Eastern India were down 24 per cent, North Western India was 9 per cent below normal, and the central region trailed by 5 per cent.

Why this shortfall isn't a surprise: The report notes moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing as per IMD and are projected to strengthen through the rest of the season. This tracks with IMD's own data: the agency confirmed El Nino's onset in its June 2026 ENSO bulletin, following a transition from La Nina (August 2025–February 2026) through neutral conditions (March–May 2026) to a confirmed El Nino phase by June. IMD had already flagged this risk in its April 2026 long-range forecast, projecting seasonal rainfall at just 92 per cent of the long-period average — the first below-normal monsoon forecast issued in April since 2015. El Nino, caused by warming of the central and eastern Pacific, is historically associated with weaker Indian monsoons: since 1950, at least 7 of 16 El Nino years have produced below-normal monsoon rainfall, with the effect typically most pronounced in the season's second half (August–September) — precisely the pattern now playing out.

On crops, acreage of rice, oilseeds and coarse cereals has registered a decline, while pulses and jute & mesta have improved on a year-on-year basis. Pulses acreage rose with higher sowing for both tur (up 1.6 per cent) and urad (up 12 per cent), while jute and mesta acreage rose 1.7 per cent. Oilseeds sowing was lower, with slower growth in soybean and groundnut, and cotton and sugarcane sowing also declined for the period.

Water reservoir levels are running behind last year's pace as well — the All India reservoir stood at 70 per cent of total storage capacity, versus 86 per cent at the same point last year, a gap that could compound pressure on both irrigation for the rabi season and hydropower generation in the months ahead.