Monsoon's Final Phase Rainfall Spread Key To Food Inflation: Report

Regionally, the Southern Peninsula reported a deficit of 26 per cent, East and North Eastern India were down 24 per cent, North Western India was 9 per cent below normal, and the central region trailed by 5 per cent.

Why this shortfall isn't a surprise: The report notes moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing as per IMD and are projected to strengthen through the rest of the season. This tracks with IMD's own data: the agency confirmed El Nino's onset in its June 2026 ENSO bulletin, following a transition from La Nina (August 2025–February 2026) through neutral conditions (March–May 2026) to a confirmed El Nino phase by June. IMD had already flagged this risk in its April 2026 long-range forecast, projecting seasonal rainfall at just 92 per cent of the long-period average — the first below-normal monsoon forecast issued in April since 2015. El Nino, caused by warming of the central and eastern Pacific, is historically associated with weaker Indian monsoons: since 1950, at least 7 of 16 El Nino years have produced below-normal monsoon rainfall, with the effect typically most pronounced in the season's second half (August–September) — precisely the pattern now playing out.

On crops, acreage of rice, oilseeds and coarse cereals has registered a decline, while pulses and jute & mesta have improved on a year-on-year basis. Pulses acreage rose with higher sowing for both tur (up 1.6 per cent) and urad (up 12 per cent), while jute and mesta acreage rose 1.7 per cent. Oilseeds sowing was lower, with slower growth in soybean and groundnut, and cotton and sugarcane sowing also declined for the period.

Water reservoir levels are running behind last year's pace as well — the All India reservoir stood at 70 per cent of total storage capacity, versus 86 per cent at the same point last year, a gap that could compound pressure on both irrigation for the rabi season and hydropower generation in the months ahead.