Nifty, Sensex Fall for 7th Straight Week on Crude, Yields

Crude: The Biggest Weight on the Market

Brent crude stayed above $105 per barrel for most of the week, while WTI remained above $90, amid continued geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over global oil supplies.

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Oil prices moderated towards the end of the week, offering some relief to global risk sentiment and easing worries over India's import bill, inflation expectations, the rupee and corporate input costs.

Why It Matters: India's Exposure to the Hormuz Crisis

For India, which imports the bulk of its crude oil needs, the Strait of Hormuz is not a distant story. Before the war, about a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas passed through the strait, and Iran's disruption of the route has become its main source of leverage.

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That is why markets are closely watching the latest diplomatic move. Iran has offered to reopen the strait and resume talks on its nuclear programme within seven days if the US lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observes a ceasefire that includes Lebanon. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the initial steps would take four to five days, the strait would open on the sixth day, and talks on a final deal would begin on day seven.

Washington's response has been cautious. The White House described its conversations with mediators as positive and constructive, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the diplomacy had not produced a breakthrough. For Dalal Street, any credible progress towards reopening the strait could be the single biggest trigger for a turnaround in sentiment.

Bond Yields and the FII Exodus

The global bond market added to the pressure. Analysts said the US 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5.10% during the week. Elevated yields tighten global financial conditions and can make emerging market assets less attractive in relative terms.

That shift is visible in flows. Foreign institutional selling intensified significantly compared with previous weeks and has become a major headwind for domestic equities.

The Rupee Under Watch

Market participants are also tracking the rupee. Persistent oil-related demand for dollars and continued FII outflows could keep the currency under pressure, although RBI intervention has helped contain excessive volatility.

Key Levels for Next Week

According to analysts, the 23,000 zone is the immediate support area for Nifty, while 23,200 is the immediate resistance zone.

The Bottom Line

Seven straight weekly losses show that domestic markets are currently being driven more by global forces than by company fundamentals. Crude prices, US yields and FII flows are all tied, directly or indirectly, to the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. Until there is clarity on Iran's seven-day proposal, volatility is likely to remain the market's defining feature.

With inputs from IANS.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should consult a SEBI-registered financial adviser before making investment decisions.