Gold Posts 4.73% Weekly Gain as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Ease

Gold and silver benefited from declining Treasury yields and a softer US dollar. Crude oil remained volatile amid shifting headlines around a potential agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US employment report showed the economy added only 23,000 jobs in July, compared with forecasts of about 80,000. Earlier payroll figures were also revised sharply lower, with revisions to the previous two months wiping out roughly 1,03,000 jobs, an analyst said.

The softer labour picture, together with weaker ADP private payrolls and other employment indicators, trimmed market expectations for a September Fed rate hike to about 44 per cent from roughly 58 per cent. Treasury yields fell in response, with the benchmark 10-year yield easing to around 4.60 per cent from an intraday high of 4.68 per cent, creating a supportive backdrop for precious metals.

Gold, which had started the week under pressure as geopolitical risk premiums eased following the postponement of a planned US strike on Iran, staged a sharp reversal after the employment report and climbed to a seven-week high.

Despite the shift in rate expectations, inflation remains a key risk, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s next policy move will continue to depend on upcoming inflation and labour-market data.

Commodity experts place immediate resistance for COMEX gold at $4,470–$4,500 and support at $4,330–$4,300. For MCX gold, immediate resistance is seen at Rs 1,52,200–Rs 1,52,800 and support at Rs 1,50,000–Rs 1,50,700.

Investors will closely monitor Federal Reserve communication, Treasury yields, the US dollar and developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. The July US inflation report, due in the coming week, will be watched for fresh clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory.