For anyone who bought gold at the peak in January, 2026 has been a hard year. Gold hit a record of nearly $5,600 per ounce early in the year, then fell below $4,000 before recovering. Silver had an even bigger rise and fall: it climbed above $100 per ounce and then corrected more steeply than gold.
A new report from Motilal Oswal Financial Services says this turbulence may be an opportunity rather than a warning sign. With Dhanteras and Diwali days away, the brokerage is telling investors to treat price falls as chances to build positions slowly. It does not see them as a reason to sell.
The report explains why this year has felt so different from the last. "Unlike the largely one-directional rally witnessed in 2025, precious metals have experienced sharper swings in 2026, driven by changing expectations around US interest rates, persistent inflation, elevated bond yields and geopolitical developments," it said.
In other words, the market has moved from steady gains to swings driven by each new data release. Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said gold's near-term path will remain sensitive to the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, inflation trends, the US dollar and real bond yields.
That is the short-term picture. Damani said the long-term supports are still there: central banks are diversifying their reserves, investment demand has held up, and fiscal uncertainty around the world continues to favour safe-haven assets.
The numbers behind the confidence
The report's optimism rests on investor behaviour. Even with gold priced high, people have kept buying. Global gold ETF holdings rose by around 187 tonnes in August and September 2026 to a record 4,256 tonnes, and third-quarter inflows reached a record $31 billion.
Indian investors have shown the same appetite. In September, inflows into gold ETFs rose 71 per cent month-on-month to Rs 44.5 billion, and silver ETFs drew Rs 19.7 billion. This suggests that, for many Indian households, financial gold is becoming as important as jewellery and coins.
The report keeps its buy-on-dips approach. Internationally, it marks $3,800–$3,900 per ounce as the zone to accumulate. In India, assuming the rupee at 96 to the dollar, it prefers buying near Rs 1,35,000 per 10 grams, with a medium-term target of Rs 1,60,000–Rs 1,68,000.
What it means for festive buyers
The timing makes the report especially relevant for buyers this week. Swings in the USD/INR exchange rate have made domestic price moves even sharper. The report also points to a less obvious pattern: festive demand affects domestic premiums, imports and physical buying volumes more than it affects international prices.
Its historical data carries a caution for anyone buying on the festival itself. Gold has generally delivered stronger returns in the 30 days before Diwali than in the 30 days after.
The practical takeaway is to buy steadily and patiently. Buying on Dhanteras is still a tradition rooted in weddings and cultural meaning, but this report suggests that investors who want returns should spread their purchases over time and use price dips, instead of putting all their money in on one auspicious day.
(With inputs from IANS)
