India's Russian Oil Demand Driven by Supply Shocks
India's rising Russian crude imports are driven by West Asia supply disruptions, not discounts, with imports averaging 60 million barrels monthly, a report finds.
Key Highlights:
- India's Russian crude imports have averaged 60 million barrels per month since the US-Iran war began, up from 46 million barrels monthly during FY23-26.
- India has imported 298 million barrels of Russian crude since the war's onset, according to Axis Bank Economic Research.
- The report argues the additional 1 million barrels per day since March 2026 "can't be explained by price dynamics alone."
- Russia's share of Indian crude imports rose despite premiums of up to $7/bbl over West Asia crude.
- India's exports this fiscal have grown 19% year-on-year, led by electronics, auto/parts, metals and refined petroleum products.
Supply Disruptions, Not Discounts, Behind the Shift
India's increased Russian crude imports are being driven by West Asia supply disruptions rather than discounts, with imports averaging 60 million barrels per month since the start of the US-Iran war, compared to 46 million barrels a month during FY23-26, a report showed on Tuesday.
A Substantial Cumulative Volume
Since the start of the US-Iran war, India has imported 298 million barrels of Russian crude, according to the Axis Bank Economic Research report, a figure that underscores the scale at which Indian refiners have leaned on Russian supply during this period of regional instability.
Distinguishing Two Distinct Phases of Growth
While Russia's share in India's imported crude basket jumped from 0 per cent to 30 per cent between March 2022 and June 2023, likely due to discounts, the additional 1 million barrels per day since March 2026 "can't be explained by price dynamics alone," the report noted, drawing a clear distinction between the earlier, discount-driven phase of Russian crude adoption and this more recent surge.
