The report finds that Gen-AI could automate between 9 and 17 per cent of the tasks currently performed by India’s non-agricultural workforce, depending on the pace of technological progress. Only 8 to 12 per cent of jobs face a meaningful risk of substitution, while 42 to 48 per cent of employment is expected to be complemented by the technology.
“Gen-AI could perform 9-17 per cent of the tasks currently undertaken by India’s non-agricultural workforce, depending on assumptions about the level of task complexity that it can perform,” said Santanu Sengupta, chief India economist at Goldman Sachs Research.
Most occupations, the analysis notes, combine tasks that AI can handle with activities that still require human judgement, creativity or physical skill. As a result, the dominant pattern is expected to be augmentation rather than wholesale replacement.
Knowledge-intensive sectors—healthcare, education, media, and financial and professional services—are projected to gain the most because their work centres on information analysis, content generation and decision-making. Manufacturing, construction and mining are likely to experience lower direct disruption owing to the greater physical component of those jobs.
Within occupational categories, clerical support roles carry the highest substitution risk, followed by certain professional, technician and customer-service positions. Jobs that involve physical labour or machine operation are assessed as facing limited impact.
On the macroeconomic side, the report estimates that AI adoption could raise India’s annual labour productivity growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points over the next decade. If AI capabilities advance more rapidly than currently assumed, the productivity boost could reach 0.8 percentage points.
Concerns that AI will significantly damage India’s technology services sector may be overstated, the analysis suggests. Although the country’s six largest listed IT services companies reduced headcount by around 64,000, the broader technology ecosystem—including Global Capability Centres—added nearly 700,000 jobs over the past three years.
The overall picture presented by Goldman Sachs is one of selective automation paired with widespread productivity support. For the majority of India’s non-agricultural workers, Gen-AI is expected to function as a tool that expands capacity rather than as a direct substitute for employment.
