For many Indian households, Muhurat trading is as much a ritual as a market event. People buy a token share, open a fresh ledger and hope the new Samvat will be a good year for their money. This year, market experts suggest keeping the ritual but limiting the risk.
As Dalal Street prepares for the special Diwali session on Sunday, which marks the start of Samvat 2083, analysts are advising a cautious, stock-specific approach. Their reasoning is simple. Benchmark indices are close to key resistance levels, and the short session usually sees limited liquidity, which can make price movements sharper than usual.
The session is traditionally seen as an auspicious time to start investments and review portfolios. Experts warned against impulsive decisions driven by festive mood, and urged investors to focus on fundamentals, valuations and long-term financial goals.
Their advice differs by type of investor. Long-term investors can use the occasion to review asset allocation and gradually buy fundamentally strong stocks. Short-term traders should watch technical levels and global cues before taking positions. New investors are advised to make small investments in fundamentally sound companies with a long-term view, and not to buy a stock only because the day is considered lucky.
Given the possibility of lower liquidity, experts also advised against large orders and aggressive trading during the limited session.
The numbers behind the optimism
The broader outlook is not bearish. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) said Nifty valuations look attractive at 17.5 times forward earnings, about 16 per cent below the long-term average. Small-cap stocks, however, still trade at a 25 per cent premium to their historical average. This gap supports the experts' call for selectivity over chasing momentum in the broader market.
The brokerage also expects earnings growth to recover. It projects Nifty earnings per share to rise 16 per cent year-on-year in FY27 and 14 per cent in FY28, up from 5 per cent in FY26. If that recovery happens, today's discounted valuations could look like an opportunity in hindsight.
For Samvat 2083, the experts favour banking and financial services, capital markets, manufacturing, global outsourcing and exports, consumption and digital businesses. They also see opportunities in healthcare devices, aerospace, auto components, pharmaceutical ingredients, garments, port cargo, organised jewellery and quick-commerce platforms.
What to watch on Sunday
In the near term, analysts expect a sideways to consolidative session, since both benchmark indices are approaching crucial resistance zones after a recent rally. Nifty is trading around 24,600, with immediate support at 24,350 and resistance in the 24,700–24,800 range.
They also warned that profit booking could follow six straight sessions of gains, particularly given geopolitical concerns, volatile crude oil prices and weakness in global markets.
For investors, the message is that Muhurat trading is a good moment to make a start but not to stake large sums. The new Samvat may still bring opportunities, and analysts expect the gains to go to investors who choose stocks carefully rather than buying on festive sentiment.
