For foreign investors, the return that counts is the one measured in dollars, and on that basis India has quietly been one of the few markets to hold up since mid-June.
The Nifty 500 delivered a 2.81% gain in US dollar terms between June 18 and now, according to a report cited by NDTV Profit. That figure is modest. What stands out is how the rest of the world did over the same period. The S&P 500 managed only about 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6%.
Asia did far worse. South Korea's Kospi was the weakest major market, down 36.1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 14.87%, Taiwan's TWSE lost almost 13%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped nearly 14%. The wider Asia ex-Japan index fell about 15%.
The dollar measure matters because it strips out currency effects. A market can rise in local terms and still lose money for an overseas fund once the exchange rate is counted. India staying positive after that adjustment tells global allocators that its gains are real for them, not just on paper. That point carries extra weight when the rest of the emerging-market group is falling hard.
Earnings, Not Just Momentum
The rally of the past few weeks rests on reported numbers. The Nifty 500 closed at 23,566.60 on Monday, up 7.6% from 21,895.90 on October 30. It was the seventh straight session of gains, and the index is now about 2.4% below its 52-week high of 24,144.
Results season has done much of the work. As of November 6, 331 Nifty 500 companies had reported. Among the 253 non-financial firms, median sales growth was 21.2% and median EBITDA growth was 19.8%. Median profit after tax rose 16.5%, and nearly 73% of companies grew their profits.
Lenders and insurers did even better. Financial firms, including banks, NBFCs and insurers, posted median profit growth of 22.9%. That matches price action: financial stocks led the rebound with a 7.58% gain over the week, followed by consumer cyclicals at 5.65% and healthcare at 5.56%.
When financials, consumer names and healthcare all move up together, the rally is broad rather than driven by one theme. That is usually a sign of a stronger recovery than one carried by a handful of heavyweights.
Outside markets have also helped. Softer crude oil prices ease a long-running pressure on India, which imports most of its energy. Expectations of a possible US-Iran agreement have added to the optimism, since investors see it as a way to reduce worries about energy costs, geopolitical tension and supply-chain disruption.
What happens next depends on whether these supports last. If the remaining earnings hold up and oil stays calm, the index could test its 52-week high. A reversal in crude or a collapse in US-Iran diplomacy could test the rally just as quickly. For now, India has given global investors a reason to look again at a market that held its value while much of Asia did not.
With inputs from IANS
